OPINION
The Democratic Party is losing the working class
Understanding why is the key to rebuilding a populist progressive movement
By MARK McDERMOTT
(Jan. 10, 2017) — In 2008, Barack Obama was elected along with large Democratic majorities in Congress. Eight years later we have Donald Trump and Republican control of Congress. The Democrats have lost 935 state legislative seats since 2008, and 26 states are under complete control of the Republicans. It is hard putting a happy face on this disaster for Democrats.
1. The enormous loss of support for Democrats among households making less than $50,000 per year;
2. Major loss of support among union members particularly in the Rust Belt; and
3. The long-term support of both Clintons and Obama for “free trade” and largely ignoring its impacts and the long-term crisis of deindustrialization in the Rust Belt.
Over the past four years, I have presented my economic justice and labor education work 16 times in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and upstate New York, as well as campaigning in western Pennsylvania for 16 days before the election. (See “Doorbelling at the scene of corporate crimes” — The Stand, Nov. 4, 2016.)
The white working class was hit hard, but the black working class was hit even harder. If you doubt this, visit the many devastated black neighborhoods in Detroit, Flint, Cleveland, Toledo, and Pittsburgh. There is a deep anger about this long-term decline and it erupted last month.
On Nov. 8, the American people were stunned by the election results. Questions of what happened abound. A Reuters exit poll offers important insights into voters’ attitudes:
► 75% agree “America needs a strong leader to take the country back from the rich and powerful.”
► 72% agree: “The American economy is rigged to the advantage of the rich and powerful.”
► 68% agree: “Traditional parties and politicians don’t care about people like me.”
Tens of millions were holding their noses when voting.
Clinton won the popular vote by 2.8 million. However, she lost by 3.1 million if California and New York are excluded.
We don’t have a national election, we have 50 state elections. A one-vote margin in a state is as good as a 1 million vote margin in deciding the Electoral College vote. Narrow victories in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin elected Donald Trump.
I offer a partial explanation of what happened.
In 2008, Barack Obama crushed John McCain in Michigan (16% margin), Wisconsin (14%), and Pennsylvania (10%). Total margin: 1.7 million in these states. In 2012, he won all three again but by much smaller margins. Total Obama margin: 1.07 million. Democratic presidential candidates had won Wisconsin every election since 1988 and Michigan and Pennsylvania since 1992.
In 2016, Trump won all three states by 77,000 votes, a 1.8 million vote swing in 8 years. What accounts for this dramatic shift? It started long before alleged Russian hacking, FBI Director James Comey’s intervention, Clinton’s poor campaign strategy, aggressive voter suppression, and Trump’s vile bigotry.
Working class people were listening and noticed who would come to their communities and talk about these issues. Clinton never campaigned in Wisconsin and barely campaigned in Michigan after losing their primaries, and was almost completely absent in most of Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, Trump toured these states. For decades, struggling working class families and communities in these states have longed for a national champion to fight hard on this issue and related job losses. A racist, sexist Republican demagogue emerged as their champion. This was a recipe for disaster.
In 2008 and 2012, Obama won voters nationally in households earning less than $50,000 per year 60-38%. In 2016, Clinton won 53-40%. If she had won 60-38%, she would pick up an additional 3.2 million votes. Among these households in Pennsylvania, Obama won by 36% in 2012, Clinton by 12%. In Wisconsin, Obama by 25%, Clinton 2%. In Michigan, Obama by 26%; Clinton 11%.
These dramatic shifts doomed Clinton.
There can be no doubt that these dramatic shifts nationally among low-wage working-class voters and voters in union households doomed Clinton and many Democratic congressional candidates. These shifts were extraordinarily large in these three battleground states. Given the extremely narrow margins of defeats in these three states, there are other factors that can potentially explain those defeats but I don’t believe they explain these larger shifts among lower wage workers and their families and union households away from the Democrats.
Voter suppression undoubtedly played a role in the election results. There were significant declines in victory margins between 2012 Obama and 2016 Clinton in heavily black cities and counties like Wayne County (Detroit), Michigan, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia. These declines were critical to Clinton’s defeat. How much is voter suppression and how much was lack of enthusiasm for Clinton? I don’t know but I will keep looking for clearer answers. If you have solid evidence about this issue, please send it my way.
I am delighted by this growing support but I can’t explain it.
In closing, it is critical to understand this catastrophic defeat and learn from it. We will all pay a price in the years ahead. As we move into the new year, I say, “Don’t agonize, organize,” and “Fight forward and not just fight back.”
This is our country. We have a great opportunity in the next four years. The American people want change. We must listen more carefully to them and offer a clear vision of a positive future as we fight forward. It is critical for us to reach across our great divides: race, gender, sexual orientation, union vs. non-union, urban vs. rural, native born and foreign born, age, class and regions of our states and country. We must listen to and learn from each other, find our common ground and never, ever give up the fight for a better country and world. Our children and grandchildren and those we love are counting on us.
